Who Will Make It THROUGH Selection?
I have always maintained that you cannot measure someone's heart or how badly they want to achieve something. Although this remains true, studies and statistical analyses can help us draw closer to answering the question.
Insights from a Groundbreaking Study on Spec Ops Selection
In the world of elite military training, where precision and resilience define success, understanding who will succeed in the grueling selection process is critical. For the 75th Ranger Regiment’s Ranger Assessment and Selection Program (RASP), the stakes are even higher. This isn’t just about identifying toughness; it’s about recognizing readiness. A recent study by Coombs and Hauenstein (2025), published in *Military Psychology*, sheds light on what truly predicts success—and failure—in one of the military's most demanding selection programs.
The Science of Selection: Beyond Grit
Popular culture often glorifies grit as the ultimate factor in overcoming adversity, particularly in military contexts. Yet, as this study reveals, success in RASP is far more nuanced and data-driven. By examining hundreds of participants, the researchers identified key predictors that can help forecast who is likely to graduate and who is more likely to quit. Their findings challenge some conventional wisdom while reinforcing others, offering a fresh perspective on the science of elite military selection.
Physical Ability: The Dominant Predictor
When it comes to RASP, physical performance is the clearest indicator of success. According to the study, physical fitness, particularly performance in push-ups and the 2-mile run, emerged as the number one predictor of who graduates. These seemingly straightforward tests evaluate more than strength—they measure endurance, discipline, and a candidate’s ability to handle sustained physical stress.
In the high-stakes environment of special operations, physical readiness forms the foundation of operational performance. Without it, even the most mentally tough individuals may falter. The researchers emphasize that beyond raw physical capability, consistent preparation and training routines are critical. Prospective candidates who prioritize physical conditioning demonstrate not only their fitness but also their commitment to the program's rigorous demands.
Personality and Early Attrition
While physical ability predicts who graduates, personality traits are key indicators of who quits early. The study highlights two main personality traits: high conscientiousness and low openness to experience. Candidates with these traits tend to persevere, while those lacking them are more likely to quit during the early stages of training voluntarily.
Interestingly, the study found that early attrition is rarely due to physical or cognitive limitations. Nearly all week-one dropouts voluntarily quit before any critical testing begins. This phenomenon underscores the psychological toll of elite selection programs. The initial days of RASP are designed not only to assess candidates physically but also to test their mental resilience and adaptability to high-pressure environments. Those who lack the psychological readiness often self-eliminate, leaving only those who are mentally prepared to face the program's challenges.
Cognitive Ability: A Secondary Factor
Although cognitive ability plays a role in predicting success, its impact is less significant than physical performance or personality traits. Cognitive assessments measure problem-solving skills, situational awareness, and decision-making under pressure—qualities that are essential for Rangers in real-world operations. However, the study suggests that a high IQ alone is not enough to ensure success in RASP. The rigorous and dynamic nature of the program demands a balance of cognitive, physical, and emotional strengths.
This finding is particularly enlightening, as it challenges the traditional emphasis on cognitive aptitude as a primary predictor of success. Instead, the study advocates for a more holistic approach, where cognitive ability is assessed alongside other critical factors.
The Candidate Probability Score (CPS): A Data-Driven Approach
One of the most groundbreaking contributions of the study is the introduction of the Candidate Probability Score (CPS). This innovative tool uses data analytics to assign a probability score to each candidate, predicting their likelihood of success in RASP. By combining physical, cognitive, and personality metrics, the CPS offers a comprehensive and objective assessment of a candidate’s readiness.
The implications of the CPS are profound. By relying on data rather than subjective judgments, admissions decisions can become more accurate and equitable. The CPS not only boosts the effectiveness of the selection process but also promotes diversity by identifying candidates with unconventional but promising profiles. This shift from guesswork to data-driven precision marks a significant evolution in military selection practices.
Key Takeaways for Future Candidates
For those aspiring to join the ranks of the 75th Ranger Regiment, the findings of this study offer valuable insights. Success in RASP requires a combination of physical preparation, mental resilience, and the right personality traits. Here are some practical takeaways for prospective candidates:
· Prioritize Physical Fitness: Focus on improving any weakness you have on the tactical fitness list of athletic components. In this study, emphasis was placed on pullups, push-ups, running endurance, and overall strength. Consistency in training is key.
· Develop Mental Toughness: Rigorous physical activity, even when you do not feel like it, can help you cultivate resilience and adaptability to navigate the psychological challenges of elite selection.
New Book, eBook, and Course on Never Quitting
· Understand the Importance of Personality: Traits like conscientiousness and perseverance can make a significant difference. Being aggressive in your actions can go a long way in the tactical professions.
· Balance Cognitive and Physical Skills: The ability to think and be creative under stress is a much-needed skill. Both are important, but having the ability to have them work together is the answer for those seeking tactical professions. Think and move!
Rethinking Toughness: It’s About Readiness
The study by Coombs and Hauenstein challenges the traditional notion of toughness as the sole determinant of success in elite military training. Instead, it underscores the importance of readiness—a multidimensional concept that encompasses physical, psychological, and cognitive preparedness. This holistic approach not only enhances the effectiveness of selection programs like RASP but also ensures that the most suitable candidates are selected for the challenges ahead.
In a world where precision and adaptability are paramount, the ability to predict success in elite military training has never been more critical. By leveraging data-driven tools like the Candidate Probability Score, the military can refine its selection processes, shaping the next generation of Rangers with unprecedented accuracy. Ultimately, this isn't just about identifying who’s tough—it’s about recognizing who’s truly ready to serve.
References
Coombs, A. K., & Hauenstein, N. M. A. (2025). Predicting ranger attrition. *Military Psychology, 37*(1), 73–84.
Time to Get Ready!
You stand on the brink of something extraordinary—the chance to serve your country while developing the skills that could shape your future. As the Army sets ambitious goals and exceeds them, consider what role you want to play in this exciting transformation. Visit Stew Smith Fitness to learn about comprehensive training programs designed to help you excel in your Army journey. This is your moment—embrace it and start training for a rewarding career today!
There is More to StewSmithFitness.com Than You May Know
Who is Stew Smith? Coach, Trainer, Author, Podcaster
I'm the former Navy SEAL that special ops candidates go to for books, ebooks and online coaching to prepare themselves to get to and through intense tactical assessment and selection programs and qualify for service in their chosen tactical profession. See More at StewSmithFitness.com
Quick Summary: Here is a list of what we do at StewSmithFitness.com
- FREE Fitness (all topics) / Mindset Articles and Workouts - Latest info on training for any goal! (over 1000)
- eBooks, Books and eBooks in PRINT (over 40 options)
- Spec Ops Swim Critiques on social media -
- Live QA / CSS Critiques Mon / Tues 9am -
-
Podcasts (over 200)
- Stew Smith Fitness APPs - Triad version, Pushup Push APP, Pullup Push APP, FBI workout APP
- FREE Navy SEAL Exercises Apps - iPhone, Android
- Membership Site - Get access to 100s of weeks of training programs and unpublished workouts we are currently doing each week. Constantly updated weekly with new articles, videos, and workouts of the week.
-
Tactical Fitness Course - 80 minutes to learn how to get both TO and THROUGH spec ops selection programs. Plus the Never Quit Mindset Course
- Online Coaching - Get personalized programming designed for your goals, abilities, time per day, days per week, equipment/facilities...etc.
Dive deeper into Tactical Athlete training and mental toughness by exploring Stew Smith Fitness Programming for the Tactical Athlete online store. Uncover the strategies and techniques elite forces use to push past physical and mental barriers. Visit https://www.stewsmithfitness.com now and equip yourself with the tools for success for many special ops-level selection programs in the military and police world.
Books and eBooks Available (All Levels of Fitness)
Army PFT Workout (Prep For Rucking, OPAT, & Updated AFT 2025)
Army Special Forces / Ranger Workout
Army Air Assault School Workout
Army Airborne Workout
Advanced Running Program - Special Ops Supplement Plan
USMC RECON / MarSOC Workout
USMC OCS / TBS Workout
USMC IST and PFT
Navy SEAL Workout Phase 1
Navy SEAL Workout Phase 2 - 3
Navy SEAL Workout Phase 4 Grinder PT
Navy SWCC Workout
The Combat Conditioning Workout
Air Force PJ / CCT Workout Battlefield Airman Prep Course
The UBRR Upper Body Round Robin Workout / Spec Ops version
The Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer / Navy SAR Workout
The Service Academy Workout (West Point, Navy, Air Force Academy)
The Navy, Air Force, Marine Corp Boot Camp Workout
-
The Law Enforcement Physical Fitness Workouts
The FBI Academy Workout | FBI Workout Vol 2
The DEA Workout
The FLETC Workout - Ace the PEB
The PFT Bible: Pushups, Sit-ups, 1.5 Mile Run
The Fire Fighter Workout - Ace the CPAT
Calisthenics and Cardio
Online Coaching Options
Online PT CLUB - Premium Coaching -
Do you need a program that works for you? We can customize it to your personal goals and help you fit it into your day with the equipment you have available. Let us be your training partner and coach.
Many people ask me about the difference between the Premium Program and the Online PT CLUB Coaching. Individuals in either program receive personalized training from me, Stew Smith, tailored to fit their abilities, goals, daily time commitment, weekly schedule, facilities, and equipment. We communicate regularly about your progress, and your feedback helps me develop the plan for the following week. There is no template workout and see you later. These programs are created week by week with you and me in communication to determine the best approach for the upcoming week.
Tactical Fitness Course - Getting TO the training does not guarantee you get THROUGH the training. Learn about the two phases of tactical fitness you need to develop thoroughly before getting to BUDS. Check out the Online Course - Getting TO and THROUGH Special Ops Selection.
Member's Only Content / Services Program!
Want access to years of workouts, favorite weekly workouts, a free fitness app, a private Facebook group, and a video and photo library of exercises? Plus, get more access to live Q&A sessions. Check out the Stew Smith Fitness Members Section for all this and more.
The dashboard below has the links to all the information, archives, videos, and links to workouts, podcasts, and Live Q and A sessions.
Consider this! - A Membership Program and Gain Access to Exclusive Content
(click for Fitness Club Dashboard - members only)
At StewSmith.com - List of Products and Services
- FREE Articles
- Podcasts and Swimming Videos at Youtube.com page
- eBooks
- Books and eBooks in PRINT
- Stew Smith Fitness Club membership site
- Online Coaching